An empirical perspective for understanding climate change impacts in Switzerland

Planning for the future requires a detailed understanding of how climate change affects a wide range of systems at spatial scales that are relevant to humans. Understanding of climate change impacts can be gained from observational and reconstruction approaches and from numerical models that apply existing knowledge to climate change scenarios. Although modeling approaches are prominent in climate change assessments, observations and reconstructions provide insights that cannot be derived from simulations alone, especially at local to regional scales where climate adaptation policies are implemented. Here, we review the wealth of understanding that emerged from observations and reconstructions of ongoing and past climate change impacts in Switzerland, with wider applicability in Europe. We draw examples from hydrological, alpine, forest, and agricultural systems, which are of paramount societal importance, and are projected to undergo important changes by the end of this century. For each system, we review existing model-based projections, present what is known from observations, and discuss how empirical evidence may help improve future Editor:Erica Smithwick. * Paul D. Henne [email protected] 1 Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, P.O. Box 25046, Denver Federal Center,MS 980, Denver, CO 80225, USA 2 Institute of Plant Sciences, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland 3 Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland 4 Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland 5 Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Downing Place, Cambridge, England 6 Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland 7 Global Change Research Centre and Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic 8 Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Insubric Ecosystems Research Group, Cadenazzo, Switzerland 9 Climate and Air Pollution Group, Agroscope, Zurich, Switzerland 10 Department of Geography, Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, and Centre for International Development and Environmental Research, Justus Liebig University of Giessen, Giessen, Germany 11 Institute of History, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland 12 Swiss Academies of Arts and Sciences, Bern, Switzerland 13 Paul Scherrer Institut, Villigen, Switzerland 14 School of Agricultural, Forest and Food Sciences, Bern University of Applied Sciences, Zollikofen, Switzerland 15 Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland 16 Centre Alpien de Phytogéographie Fondation J.-M. Aubert, & Section of Biology, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland 17 Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Geography & Geoecology, Karlsruhe, Germany Reg Environ Change DOI 10.1007/s10113-017-1182-9